AI Capex Supercycle: 10 Charts on Cloud Revenue, ROIC, and the Q2 2026 Earnings Reset
AI Capex Supercycle: 10 Charts on Cloud Revenue, ROIC, and the Q2 2026 Earnings Reset
AWS · Azure · Google Cloud — 2020 to 2030E · ROIC vs. WACC · Capex productivity · Q2 2026 earnings beats and estimate revisions
This chart file is a companion to "Is the AI Capex Supercycle Earning Its Cost of Capital? A ROIC/WACC/EVA Analysis of Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet" published at gregg-carlson.com. The companion report contains complete methodology, ROIC framework, segment-test limitations, scenario analysis, and full disclosures. All figures have been cross-verified against the three author financial models and named public sources cited per chart.
Charts in this file
- Combined AI Capex Build-Out, 2022–2030E
- AWS, Azure & GCP Annual Revenue, 2020–2030E
- AWS Revenue & Operating Margin, FY2015–2030E
- ROIC vs. WACC, 2017–2030E: Small-Base Spikes, Then Convergence
- Capex Productivity: 11.6–13.0% Convergence
- Q2 2026 Earnings: Actual vs. Consensus
- Cloud Growth vs. Guidance
- Capex Guidance Revisions
- Stock Price Event-Window
- Analyst Price Target Revisions
1 — Combined AI Capex: $116B (2022) to $645B (2027E)
Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet grew combined annual capex roughly 4.5× in four years. All three raised 2026 guidance during the year. 2027E bars reflect company guidance signals and the author financial model estimates.
2 — AWS, Azure & Google Cloud: Annual Revenue 2020–2030E
Three cloud businesses on a common revenue axis. Solid bars = actuals from SEC filings. Faded bars = post-Q2 2026 Wall Street consensus (2027–2030E). Azure: only FY2025 ($75B) and FY2026 ($100B) are management-confirmed; prior years are author estimates from disclosed growth rates.
3 — AWS: Revenue & Operating Margin, FY2015–2030E
AWS from first segment disclosure (FY2015) through 2030E. Margin cycle: 2023 optimization trough (27.1%), 2024 AI reacceleration (37.0%), 2025 step-back (35.4%), Q2 2026 record quarterly margin of 39.4%. The 2026E annual margin (36.0%) blends four quarters, two of which are estimated.
4 — ROIC vs. WACC, 2017–2030E: Small-Base Spikes, Then Convergence
All three cleared WACC in every year shown except one. Amazon's 2017 ROIC of 327% and Microsoft's 2019 figure of 154% aren't operating miracles — both companies' invested-capital bases were still tiny relative to NOPAT that early, so the ratio spikes mechanically (Amazon's 2016 invested capital was barely $1B; Microsoft's FY2016 net cash position actually exceeded its combined debt and equity, making FY2017 ROIC undefined under this methodology — its line starts at FY2018). Amazon's 2022 is the one real exception to "everyone clears WACC": ROIC of 6.2% fell below its 10.17% WACC on a 54% effective tax rate that year, compounding an operating hit from post-COVID fulfillment overcapacity (North America and International segment operating income both went negative). NOPAT recovered to 20.9% (2023) and a peak of 34.2% (2024) before all three converge into the mid-20s by 2030E as the AI-capex build-out expands each company's invested-capital base faster than NOPAT can keep pace.
5 — Capex Productivity: All Three Converge to 11.6–13.0%
For every dollar of cumulative capex spent over a window, how much incremental after-tax operating profit appeared by window-end? Not a cost-of-capital test — denominator is gross capex not invested capital, and WACC is shown for orientation only. Three separately-built models starting from different historical levels converge to a 11.6–13.0% band.
6 — Q2 2026 Earnings: Actual vs. Pre-Earnings Consensus
All three beat on revenue. AWS +4.2% vs. consensus at 37% growth (fastest in 18 quarters). Azure +3pp on growth rate (43% vs. 40.2%). Google Cloud: largest absolute beat of the cycle — $24.8B vs. $18.4B consensus (+34.5%). GOOGL EPS shown excludes the $53.4B Anthropic mark-to-market gain; reported GAAP EPS was $9.23.
7 — Cloud Growth: Consensus vs. Actual vs. Next-Quarter Guidance
Google Cloud's 37pp beat (82% vs. 45%) is the largest cloud growth surprise in this earnings cycle. Azure guided 45% constant-currency for Q1 FY2027 — above the 43% just delivered. AWS gave no separate Q3 segment guidance; ~30% implied reflects the Prime Day timing headwind on total company revenue.
8 — Capex Guidance Revisions: What Changed at Each Company
The core market narrative: Alphabet raised $10B with no FCF clarity — stock −7%. Microsoft reported −$15B but it was an accounting reclassification (spending unchanged) — stock +9%. Amazon raised $20B alongside record AWS margins — stock +15%. Consistent rule applied: capex rewarded when margin evidence arrives alongside.
9 — Stock Price Reaction: Event-Window Around Q2 2026 Earnings
Alphabet's arc — initial −7%, recovery above baseline within two weeks — is the most instructive: capex without margin confirmation produced a sell-off; the recovery came once Amazon and Microsoft's prints supplied it. Limitation: approximate reconstruction from news sources — not a licensed price feed.
10 — Post-Earnings Re-Rating: Price vs. Street Targets, GOOGL, AMZN & MSFT
Amazon and Microsoft: current prices track well below Street average targets, leaving room to the upside. Alphabet: current price sits closest to its Street average, reflecting the round-trip recovery after the post-earnings decline. All three names trade below their Street high targets.
Data Audit Summary
✓ = verified against named source ≈ = estimate ! = approximate only
| Data Series | Source | Status |
|---|---|---|
| AWS revenue 2021-2025A | Amazon 10-K SEC filings | ✓ Verified |
| AWS op. margin 2021-2025A | Amazon 10-K; model cross-check | ✓ Verified (2021A corrected 29.8%; 2027E corrected 37.5%) |
| Google Cloud revenue 2020-2025A | Alphabet 10-K SEC filings | ✓ Verified |
| Azure FY2025 ($75B), FY2026 ($100B) | CEO Nadella earnings calls | ✓ Management-confirmed |
| Azure FY2020-FY2024 | Author estimates from Microsoft-disclosed growth rates | ≈ Author estimates — Microsoft does not disclose Azure in dollars |
| AMZN/MSFT/GOOGL capex (actuals) | Company 10-K cash flow statements | ✓ Verified |
| ROIC all companies 2017-2025A | Author models vs. company 10-Ks | ✓ Verified — independently reconstructed from 10-K/earnings-release NOPAT and invested capital; corrected AMZN 2017–2024 from originally published figures after reconciliation; MSFT FY2017 omitted as undefined (negative invested capital) |
| Capex productivity | Author models vs. article | ✓ Verified — match companion article |
| AWS 2027-2030E revenue (Fig. 2) | GS/KeyBanc consensus midpoints | ≈ Consensus — higher than author model; intentional and labelled |
| Q2 beats (Fig. 6) all metrics | CNBC/LSEG/StreetAccount | ✓ Verified against named sources |
| Capex guidance revisions (Fig. 8) | Company earnings calls July 22-30 | ✓ Verified |
| Stock price paths (Fig. 9) | Author reconstruction from news | ! Approximate — NOT a licensed price feed; directional only |
| Analyst price targets (Fig. 10) | Named: TheStreet, TIKR, TipRanks, Simply Wall St. | ✓ Named and sourced individually |
Key Findings
- MSFT and GOOGL clear WACC in every year, 2017–2030E (MSFT from 2018); AMZN dipped below WACC in 2022. Amazon's 2022 ROIC of 6.2% fell under its 10.17% WACC — an anomalous 54% effective tax rate that year, compounded by post-COVID fulfillment overcapacity, drove the shortfall. All three clear WACC from 2023 onward.
- The spread is compressing, but Amazon's path was the least stable. MSFT and GOOGL glide down from small-capital-base highs early in the window (MSFT as high as 154% in 2019) to mid-20s by 2030E. AMZN swung from a 327% high in 2017 (also a small-base artifact) to 6.2% (2022) to a 34.2% peak (2024) before settling into the mid-20s with the other two — resilience from here depends on projected AWS margin expansion not yet fully realised.
- Capex productivity converges from wide historical dispersion (13–28%) to a tight 11.6–13.0% band — three separate models, same endpoint.
- Q2 2026 reset the market capex pricing rule: capex + margin evidence (AMZN, MSFT) = large positive moves. Capex without it (GOOGL initial) = sell-off, then reversal on peer evidence.
- Cloud revenue gaps closing. Consensus puts all three at USD307–382B by 2030E vs. ~USD160B gap in 2026.
Read the Full Report
These charts are a companion to the full analytical report, which includes the complete ROIC/WACC/EVA methodology, segment-test limitation, scenario ranges, Morgan Stanley framework comparison, the depreciation assumption debate, and the AWS $1 trillion sizing note.
→ Read the full report at gregg-carlson.com