What a signature should mean, the guidance behind it, and a protocol for owner-led companies

A segment-level ROIC / WACC / EVA read on the AWS capex cycle, FY2026E–FY2030E — built from AWS's own 10-K disclosures, a live Bull / Base / Bear scenario model, and a reality check against Morgan Stanley's and Goldman Sachs' most recent estimates.

Independent analysis of Amazon's Q2 2026 earnings: AWS revenue grew 37% to $42.2B, margins hit a record 39.4%, and capex guidance rose to $220B. Full segment breakdown and updated DCF valuation.

Independent DCF, comparables, and scenario valuation of Amazon.com (AMZN) covering AWS growth, the AI capex cycle, free cash flow inflection, and a full risk assessment.

Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet took combined annual capital expenditures from roughly $120 billion to roughly $500 billion in four years. A ROIC/WACC/EVA read on AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud finds all three still clear their cost of capital — but the spread that made them extraordinary compounders has narrowed sharply at Microsoft and Alphabet, and all three now converge toward a similar, materially lower level of return on new capital.

This chart file is a companion to "Is the AI Capex Supercycle Earning Its Cost of Capital? A ROIC/WACC/EVA Analysis of Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet" published at gregg-carlson.com. The companion report contains complete methodology, ROIC framework, segment-test limitations, scenario analysis, and full disclosures. All figures have been cross-verified against the three author financial models and named public sources cited per chart.

Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are each spending $80B–$200B on AI infrastructure in FY 2026 — a combined commitment approaching $600 billion. But the strategies are fundamentally different: Amazon is building vertically (custom chips + cloud), Microsoft is monetizing through distribution (Azure + Copilot + OpenAI), and Google is leveraging its model advantage (Gemini + Search + Cloud). The capital allocation choices each company makes today will determine their competitive positions for the next decade.

Amazon’s Q1 2026 earnings beat across every major line: $181.5B revenue (+17% YoY), $23.9B operating income at a record 13.1% margin, AWS growing 28% to $37.6B (fastest pace in 15 quarters), and Advertising at $17.2B (+24% YoY) crossing $70B in TTM revenue.

Amazon is not one business — it is seven with radically different economics. AWS and Advertising, which represent approximately 31% of revenue, generate the overwhelming majority of economic value. Valuing Amazon without separating these segments produces a meaningless blended average.

Andy Jassy's 2025 letter is not primarily a shareholder communication. It is a capital allocation philosophy, a competitive strategy memo, and a treatise on long-duration thinking — all wrapped in annual report format. The lessons it contains apply to any business at any scale.

The five largest hyperscalers are projected to spend $660–$700 billion on capex in 2026 — the largest infrastructure investment cycle in technology history. What it means for your portfolio and your business.